Two X-ray space telescopes captured the never-before-seen blast 130 million light-years away. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. A never-before-seen blast from a supermassive black hole was spotted by two sophisticated X-ray space telescopes . This giant black hole about 130 million light-years away from Earth whipped up powerful winds, flinging material out into space at 37,282 miles per second. This particular supermassive black hole is lurking within the spiral galaxy NGC 3783.

It's the first coronal mass ejection seen outside our sun. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. Skygazers can once again thank the sun for the latest round of Northern Lights that recently danced above much of the United States. Also known as the aurora borealis in the north, (or aurora australis in the Southern Hemisphere) these night sky events get their start on the sun's surface after coronal mass ejections (CMEs) spew ionized clouds of high energy particles towards Earth. The radiation then interacts with the planet's magnetosphere and generates the vivid colors in Earth's atmosphere-as well as the occasional electrical grid and satellite array headache .

'Should such an event occur, there are no good solutions.' A solar flare seen by the ESA's Solar Orbiter. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. Governmental disaster preparedness isn't limited to crises that originate here on Earth. In fact, experts know that some of the most disruptive and unpredictable occurrences begin on the surface of the sun .

A deep learning model is often considered a black-box model, as its internal workings tend to be opaque to the user. Because of the lack of transparency, it is challenging to understand the reasoning behind the model's predictions. Here, we present an approach to making a deep learning-based solar storm prediction model interpretable, where solar storms include solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This deep learning model, built based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) network with an attention mechanism, aims to predict whether an active region (AR) on the Sun's surface that produces a flare within 24 hours will also produce a CME associated with the flare. The crux of our approach is to model data samples in an AR as time series and use the LSTM network to capture the temporal dynamics of the data samples. To make the model's predictions accountable and reliable, we leverage post hoc model-agnostic techniques, which help elucidate the factors contributing to the predicted output for an input sequence and provide insights into the model's behavior across multiple sequences within an AR. To our knowledge, this is the first time that interpretability has been added to an LSTM-based solar storm prediction model.

The application of machine learning to the study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impacts on Earth has seen significant growth recently. Understanding and forecasting CME geoeffectiveness is crucial for protecting infrastructure in space and ensuring the resilience of technological systems on Earth. Here we present GeoCME, a deep-learning framework designed to predict, deterministically or probabilistically, whether a CME event that arrives at Earth will cause a geomagnetic storm. A geomagnetic storm is defined as a disturbance of the Earth's magnetosphere during which the minimum Dst index value is less than -50 nT. GeoCME is trained on observations from the instruments including LASCO C2, EIT and MDI on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), focusing on a dataset that includes 136 halo/partial halo CMEs in Solar Cycle 23. Using ensemble and transfer learning techniques, GeoCME is capable of extracting features hidden in the SOHO observations and making predictions based on the learned features. Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of GeoCME, achieving a Matthew's correlation coefficient of 0.807 and a true skill statistics score of 0.714 when the tool is used as a deterministic prediction model. When the tool is used as a probabilistic forecasting model, it achieves a Brier score of 0.094 and a Brier skill score of 0.493. These results are promising, showing that the proposed GeoCME can help enhance our understanding of CME-triggered solar-terrestrial interactions.

Although space weather events may not directly affect human life, they have the potential to inflict significant harm upon our communities. Harmful space weather events can trigger atmospheric changes that result in physical and economic damages on a global scale. In 1989, Earth experienced the effects of a powerful geomagnetic storm that caused satellites to malfunction, while triggering power blackouts in Canada, along with electricity disturbances in the United States and Europe. With the solar cycle peak rapidly approaching, there is an ever-increasing need to prepare and prevent the damages that can occur, especially to modern-day technology, calling for the need of a comprehensive prediction system. This study aims to leverage machine learning techniques to predict instances of space weather (solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms), based on active region magnetograms of the Sun. This was done through the use of the NASA DONKI service to determine when these solar events occur, then using data from the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory to compile a dataset that includes magnetograms of active regions of the Sun 24 hours before the events. By inputting the magnetograms into a convolutional neural network (CNN) trained from this dataset, it can serve to predict whether a space weather event will occur, and what type of event it will be. The model was designed using a custom architecture CNN, and returned an accuracy of 90.27%, a precision of 85.83%, a recall of 91.78%, and an average F1 score of 92.14% across each class (Solar flare [Flare], geomagnetic storm [GMS], coronal mass ejection [CME]). Our results show that using magnetogram data as an input for a CNN is a viable method to space weather prediction. Future work can involve prediction of the magnitude of solar events.

In the era of space exploration, the implications of space weather have become increasingly evident. Central to this is the phenomenon of coronal holes, which can significantly influence the functioning of satellites and aircraft. These coronal holes, present on the sun, are distinguished by their open magnetic field lines and comparatively cooler temperatures, leading to the emission of solar winds at heightened rates. To anticipate the effects of these coronal holes on Earth, our study harnesses computer vision to pinpoint the coronal hole regions and estimate their dimensions using imagery from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Further, we deploy deep learning methodologies, specifically the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) approach, to analyze the trends in the data related to the area of the coronal holes and predict their dimensions across various solar regions over a span of seven days. By evaluating the time series data concerning the area of the coronal holes, our research seeks to uncover patterns in the behavior of coronal holes and comprehend their potential influence on space weather occurrences. This investigation marks a pivotal stride towards bolstering our capacity to anticipate and brace for space weather events that could have ramifications for Earth and its technological apparatuses.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) correspond to dramatic expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the solar corona into the heliosphere. CMEs are scientifically relevant because they are involved in the physical mechanisms characterizing the active Sun. However, more recently CMEs have attracted attention for their impact on space weather, as they are correlated to geomagnetic storms and may induce the generation of Solar Energetic Particles streams. In this space weather framework, the present paper introduces a physics-driven artificial intelligence (AI) approach to the prediction of CMEs travel time, in which the deterministic drag-based model is exploited to improve the training phase of a cascade of two neural networks fed with both remote sensing and in-situ data. This study shows that the use of physical information in the AI architecture significantly improves both the accuracy and the robustness of the travel time prediction.

The Sun constantly releases radiation and plasma into the heliosphere. Sporadically, the Sun launches solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs carry away a huge amount of mass and magnetic flux with them. An Earth-directed CME can cause serious consequences to the human system. It can destroy power grids/pipelines, satellites, and communications. Therefore, accurately monitoring and predicting CMEs is important to minimize damages to the human system. In this study we propose an ensemble learning approach, named CMETNet, for predicting the arrival time of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth. We collect and integrate eruptive events from two solar cycles, #23 and #24, from 1996 to 2021 with a total of 363 geoeffective CMEs. The data used for making predictions include CME features, solar wind parameters and CME images obtained from the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph. Our ensemble learning framework comprises regression algorithms for numerical data analysis and a convolutional neural network for image processing. Experimental results show that CMETNet performs better than existing machine learning methods reported in the literature, with a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient of 0.83 and a mean absolute error of 9.75 hours.

Dr. Thomas Berger has landed a NASA grant to research space weather with machine learning. Berger, the executive director of the University of Colorado Boulder Space Weather Technology, Research and Education Center, is leading a team that has received a two-year, $496,000 grant to design a better forecasting system for solar magnetic eruptions on the sun. These events lead to solar flares and coronal mass ejections that can wreak havoc on radio communications, endanger satellites in low Earth orbit, and even destabilize the electric power grid here on Earth. "Up to very recently, there have only been subjective tools, human forecasters who view images of sunspots and use historical data tables to say, 'The probability of this sunspot flaring in the next 24 hours is X%'," Berger said. A 24-hour range for solar eruption forecasts is about the best a human forecaster can do with current technology.